FED decision

La clave de la reunión de hoy, donde por supuesto se mantienen los tipos de interés sin cambios, está en que la FED por un lado deja claro que las tenencias de bonos actuales van a quedar igual, al reinvertir los pagos de capital de deuda de agencias y de MBS en bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo, además avisa de que irá reprogramando los bonos que mantiene a medida que venzan.

Todo esto son claras novedades, que alejan lo que se comentaba no hace mucho de diseñar estrategias de cancelación de las medidas de apoyo.

Evidentemente, todo esto viene como consecuencia del reconocimiento que hace la FED en el texto de que la recuperación económica va a ser menor de lo que esperaban hasta no hace mucho.

Siguen repitiendo en este comunicado que los tipos se mantendrán bajos durante un largo tiempo.

Respecto al consumo estiman que se ve limitado por el paro, por el problema inmobiliario y por la falta de crédito, y en cuanto a la inflación a corto plazo admiten que está bajando pero mantienen sus perspectivas de largo plazo estables.

No ha habido unanimidad en la decisión, y hay un voto discordante. En concreto el de Hoening, que ha votado en contra de mantener la política de compras de bonos como hasta ahora.

En resumen, este texto tiene una parte "buena" para los mercados y otra mala.

La mala es evidentemente que la economía no va bien, y la FED lo reconoce.

La buena que la FED vuelve a acelerar su política de dar manguerazos de liquidez y de imprimir billetes y esto es algo que siempre le gusta mucho a los mercados. Baste recordar el subidón desde marzo de 2009 precisamente por estas medidas que inundaban el mercado.

Difícil saber como nos los tomaremos, pero puede que pese más lo de los manguerazos, hay pruebas sobradas de que al mercado le suele importar poco lo mal que esté la economía mientras le den la droga de la liquidez a mansalva.

Terminamos con el texto completo en inglés:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters, and with substantial resource slack continuing to constrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman;
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L.
Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M.
Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy
is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing
to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds
rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's
ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial
conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the
Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was
required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.

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